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European tourism heading toward 2100 faces a distinctive cluster of pressures: the Mediterranean is warming roughly 1.4–1.5× faster than the global mean, pushing the summer high season out of southern coasts and redistributing demand northward to the UK, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands, even as low- and mid-altitude Alpine and Pyrenean skiing collapses below 1,500–1,800 m and most named glaciers disappear. Layered on top is a structural overtourism backlash — Barcelona's 2028 STR ban, the Canaries protests, Amsterdam's hotel moratorium, Venice's entry fee, Athens' licence freeze — that is hardening into binding capacity caps, driven by an algorithmic-gentrification housing crisis that no other tourism region faces at the same political intensity. Demographic decline across every major destination forces dependence on Western Balkan, North African, and CPLP migrant labour at exactly the moment domestic politics is most contested over migration. Meanwhile, a uniquely dense EU regulatory stack (ETS expansion, ReFuelEU, the AI Act, CSRD, the Nature Restoration Law, the Entry/Exit System) removes national autonomy over decarbonisation, makes long-haul aviation materially more expensive without a credible technological substitute before 2045, and shifts intra-European travel decisively toward rail. All of this collides with a four-way water-allocation conflict between tourism, agriculture, urban supply, and AI data centres, an annualised wildfire regime across southern Europe, the world's densest concentration of climate-exposed UNESCO heritage, and a value-capture problem in which platforms like Booking.com extract margin from European destinations under a regulatory frame that is only beginning to contain them — producing, on the most likely path, a tourism economy by 2100 that is smaller in volume but higher in value per visitor, rail-dominant, north-shifted, shoulder-season-weighted, and operating under explicit carrying-capacity caps embedded in EU climate-adaptation law.